Flash Flood Watch Through Thursday Evening
The National Weather Service has posted a flash flood watch from 10PM Tuesday night through Thursday evening. Minnesota counties included are Sibley, Scott, Dakota, Brown, Nicollet, Le Sueur, Rice, Goodhue, Watonwan, Blue Earth, Waseca, Steele, Martin, Faribault and Freeborn and in Wisconsin, Pierce, Pepin and Eau Claire counties.
A band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across southern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin by late Tuesday evening. These storms have a good possibility of raining and producing 2-4 inches in localized areas. After a possible break Wednesday morning, widespread thunderstorms will redevelop Wednesday afternoon and night across the entire watch area with the potential for very heavy rain. A front will sag southeast and focus thunderstorm activity from southern Minnesota to central and southern Wisconsin on Thursday.
Amounts are forecast to range from 2-5 inches across south-central Minnesota to portions of west-central Wisconsin along and south of I-94. About 2-3 inches should fall farther north across central Minnesota and the rest of west-central Wisconsin. Locally higher amounts are likely, particularly across southern Minnesota.
The pattern for midweek closely mimics several high-end rainfalls in the past, including September 23, 2010, when rainfall totals of 5-8 inches fell across all of southern Minnesota. Major flooding resulted.